How India Can Still Qualify For World Test Championship Final: Scenarios Explained

On Monday, a day after India's humiliating 10-wicket defeat against Australia in the second match of the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25 series, that question became even more pronounced, and worryingly so as South Africa made their intentions clear by beating Sri Lanka.

The Proteas, who will take on visiting Pakistan in a two-Test series, need a win to secure one of the WTC final spots, leaving India and Australia fighting for the other. Sri Lanka are also mathematically in the race, but their qualification would depend on many factors.

It's one alarming situation for India. But they can still make the final for a third successive time. And they have three matches against defending WTC champions Australia to make it happen.

So, how can India qualify for the WTC final?

By beating Australia multiple times. If India win the remaining three matches of the five-match series, Rohit Sharma & Co. will finish with a points percentage (PCT) of 64.04%. Enough numbers to seal a top-two finish in the WTC points table.

As of now, India are third in the WTC points table, and beating Australia three times on the trot would require some herculean efforts from the visitors.

Such a scenario would also mean the end of Aussie hopes, irrespective of their results in Sri Lanka. After the ongoing BGT series, Pat Cummins & Co. will play two Test matches in Sri Lanka.

Win two and draw one, and India can still make the final ahead of Australia irrespective of what happens in Sri Lanka. A defeat, however, will seriously compromise India's chances.

If India win the series 2-1, and Australia clean sweep Sri Lanka 2-0, then the defending champions will finish ahead of the two-time finalists.

In a nutshell, for India to not depend on other results, they need to win at least two more and draw (3-1) the other in Australia. They simply can't afford another defeat.

Conversely, Australia can even afford a 2-3 defeat against India as they can still finish in the top two with a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka. A 2-2 draw in the BGT will also give the Aussies an advantage in the race for Lord's, thanks to the Sri Lanka fixtures.

The ICC World Test Championship 2023-25 final at Lord's, London is scheduled for June 11 start next year. India were finalists in the first two editions.