Now Is The Time For A Change In Policy

India’s policy of “strategic ambivalence” can be traced to our longstanding relationship with Russia going back to the Cold War. In 1955 Kruschev declared Moscow’s support for India’s claims over Kashmir, while India was the only South Asian nation to defend the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The Soviet Union used its veto on India’s behalf six times. More recently, in 1998, Russia opposed Western sanctions on India following New Delhi’s nuclear tests.   

One of the main reasons offered for this policy is our reliance on Russia for military equipment. Nearly 70% of our combat aircraft, 44% of our warships and submarines, and more than 90% of our armored vehicles are of Russian origin. Although Russia’s defense sales to India have dropped around 65% in the last decade (because of Western sanctions), it remains by far our biggest supplier. Russia is happy to provide India with high-leverage strategic technologies, without excessive end-user constraints. Russia has also helped build the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant – India’s largest – in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. 

Our reliance on Russia, however, is mistaken. Russian support might appear to help India in the short-term, but sanctions make the alliance riskier in the long-term. The longer the war goes on, the greater Russian demand for weapons will be, resulting in a further reduction of exports to India. Furthermore, the recent destruction of multiple Russian fighter jets mid-flight is a real concern for our own pilots. 

In addition, due to export controls imposed by Taiwan and South Korea, Russia can no longer access high-end semiconductors that are vital for precision weapons and other advanced systems.  The main military threat to India is China. In the event of war, we would need the quick resupply of advanced military equipment, which Russia – as a close ally of China – would not be able to provide.  

There are also more positive reasons why we should back Ukraine. India has been historically committed to the rules-based order that Russia (and China) seek to replace. Indeed, China and Pakistan view sovereign India in the same way as Russia views sovereign Ukraine!  

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened China, which will naturally impact India, especially in the military realm. China might also force Russia to recognize Chinese claims over disputed territories in northern and northeast India, or to change its historic support for India over Kashmir. Pakistan is already a key player in China’s Belt and Road Initiative; this could soon become a China-Russia-Pakistan axis.  

India’s economic alliances and interests today further bolster the argument. Most of our natural allies are resolutely opposed to Putin’s war. We should stand with our friends in the West in supporting Ukraine, demonstrating India’s firm commitment to the rules-based order, while elevating our status as a crisis resolver, increasing our global influence.  

“I know that today’s era is not an era of war,” Modi told Putin at the SCO summit. Unfortunately, Putin didn’t heed his words. As the world’s largest democracy, it’s time for India to change tack.  

And we have leverage. Our history of nonalignment, and our diplomatic cordial relations with nations from East to West means that we are perfectly placed to help bring the war to a peaceful resolution.  

We have good relations with both Russia and the United States. We have worked closely with the Americans to counter the Chinese in the Indo-Pacific and, alongside Australia, Japan, and the United States, and we are active members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. And the fact that Russia is our top supplier for discounted crude oil gives us added leverage that others don’t have. Finally, much of the developing world looks up to us for leadership in navigating a world dominated by major powers. 

At last year’s G20 Summit, India promoted The Bali Declaration, which calls upon all nations to “uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability.” It is time to put these principles, which reflect Prime Minister Modi’s advice to Putin, into practice. The era of “strategic ambiguity,” which all too often has veered into pro-Moscow territory, must be replaced with unambiguous support for Ukraine.   

Aman Bandvi is a senior partner at Jananiti, a think tank focussed on democracy and impact,  based out of New Delhi, India. 

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