Of these constituencies, 14 in South Karnataka are heading for voting in the second phase on April 26. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress and JD(S), which were in alliance and ruling the state then, had secured just one seat each in these 14 segments; the BJP on the other hand had won in 11 and ensured the victory of a party supported independent candidate in Mandya. Follow Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Phase 2 LIVE Updates

Vokkaliga Heartland

South Karnataka, which includes the Old Mysuru region, Mandya, Hassan, Ramanagara and Bengaluru Rural districts, are also known as the Vokkaliga heartland of the state. Vokkaligas, a predominantly rural community, are traditionally associated with farming and have for long been key to any party’s electoral performance in southern Karnataka.

In fact, during last year’s state elections, the BJP, aware of its inability to come to power in the region by itself, made tiring attempts at polarising the Vokkaliga community – the infamous narrative of two fictional Vokkaliga characters—Uri Gowda and Nanje Gowda—and that the two, and not the British, had killed the ruler of Mysore Tipu Sultan in the fourth war of Mysore in 1799. However, the party didn’t make any gains in the region through such narratives.

Lakshman Cheeranajalli, an advocate and activist in Mandya, reiterates that BJP’s politics of polarisation do not strike a chord among Vokkaligas who have always believed in treating everyone equally. But in the months leading up to the ongoing general elections, he says, the saffron party made similar attempts in Mandya, where the party doesn’t have much presence.

At the heart of the tensions was a 108-ft flagpole deep within the Keragodu village in Mandya district and the local authorities’ decision to replace a Hanuman flag that was hoisted atop the pole, with the Indian flag. While locals in the region say that the practice of hoisting a religious flag – in this case a Hanuman flag – dates back to several decades, gram panchayat officials say that the Hanuman flag was replaced by the tricolour only on January 26 which was Republic Day. But the issue soon turned into a political slugfest with BJP-JD(S) combine leaders alleging that the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government was against ‘Ram’ and is ‘anti-Hindu’, while Congress leaders accused the saffron party of inciting ‘communal tensions’ ahead of elections.

Upon a visit to the village, the divide seems clear. A blanket of saffron flags could be spotted from miles away. The Hanuman flag was brought down, but still stuck on one side of the flagpole. The Indian flag was now hoisted on the top. A police van makes its way to the spot every day since January. Local shopkeepers near the flagpole say that the situation is calm now. “It was never an issue before that we had Hanuman flag on top but the Congress government made it into a big issue,” a tea vendor nearby said.

Amid attempts to saffronise Mandya, Lakshman says, the primary concerns of people in the region remain unheard and unaddressed: drought, Cauvery River water dispute, farmer suicides, and unemployment. “South Karnataka has a history of caste conflicts and hierarchy but with things now slowly becoming communal, the farming community suffers the worst,” he says.

Issues shaping election this time

Karnataka is currently staring at its worst water crisis. The state has declared drought in 223 out of 240 taluks, out of which 196 are categorised as severely drought affected.

There is palpable anger amongst the farming community in South Karnataka against the current Congress state government and its decision to release Cauvery River water from the Krishnaraja Sagar (KRS) dam to Tamil Nadu. In September 2023, upon orders by the Supreme Court, the Karnataka government had to adhere to the Cauvery Water Management Authority and release 5,000 cusecs of water per day to Tamil Nadu. However, the Congress government has since then maintained that the state hasn't given and cannot give more water to neighbouring Tamil Nadu.

Despite assurances of relief from the government, farmers in Mandya say that there seems to be no end to their misery. Many of them are over the age of 60, do not have the physical strength to continue working in fields under the hot sun but do not have any alternative source of income either. “Most of our crops have died…and we don’t have enough water to grow new ones. But farming is our main occupation. Where else should we go?” asks Chandrashekhar, a farmer leader from Mandya.

The BJP-JD(S) combine too has often used the ongoing water scarcity situation and the Cauvery water dispute in their barbs directed at Congress. JD(S), which has the word ‘secular’ in its name, has projected itself as a party that works for the welfare of farmers. It is also touted as the ‘kingmaker’ of politics in the region – swaying between allying with the Congress and BJP at different times. Ahead of this year’s Lok Sabha elections, the regional party has tied up with the BJP, despite its initial commitment to remain independent of the two dominant political forces.

Both PM Modi and JD(S) supremo Devegowda have publicly sung praises of each other recently after the announcement of their alliance. "His (Gowda) commitment towards Karnataka, the pain in his heart for the plight of Karnataka today and the 'josh' in his voice, is the testimony for Karnataka's bright future," PM Modi said while addressing a mega public meeting in Chikkaballapura last Saturday. Devegowda meanwhile has repeatedly reiterated his commitment to this alliance – at least since it was announced for the latest general elections.

Multiple ‘U’-Turns

But the senior JD(S) leader and other members of the party have often criticised the saffron party and its activities in the state in the past.

In 2019 (when JD(S) was with Congress), Devegowda had alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to make the country a "Hindu Rashtra (nation)".

The previous year, the former Prime Minister raised concerns about communal killings in coastal Karnataka, which has been the bastion of BJP. He said, "The fundamental philosophy of Hinduism is tolerance of other faiths. That is real Hinduism. The BJP talks about Hindutva. If you don't tolerate other religions, how can you call it Hindutva or Hinduism? Innocent people have been killed in coastal Karnataka. Who killed them? For what? Is it Hindutva of BJP?"

In fact, as recently as 2022, Devegowda criticised the state’s then BJP government over its controversial decision to revise textbooks in educational institutions, including “removing Kuvempu’s picture from the social sciences textbook.”

But the same party and its leaders are now extending support to the saffron party.

In December, for instance, Devegowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy extended support for the Sangh Parivar’s Dattamala Jayanti celebrations at Chikkamagaluru’s Baba Budangiri shrine.

As Outlook has reported before, the revered site honours Guru Dattatreya, a Hindu deity believed to embody the Trimurti—Shiva, Vishnu and Brahma as a unified entity, alongside Baba Budan, a 16th-century Sufi saint credited with introducing the coffee plant to India and Dada Hayat, an 11th-century Sufi saint. However, during the build-up to the demolition of the Babri Masjid and as the Ram Janmabhoomi movement peaked in the 1990s, factions advocating the Hindutva mobilised to transform the dargah into a Dattatreya temple. They wanted to transform it into another ‘Ayodhya’.

Early this year, Kumaraswamy also attended the grand consecration ceremony of the still-incomplete Ram Mandir in Ayodhya – a move that was in stark contrast to his earlier criticism of the BJP for ‘misusing Ram’s name for political benefits’ (February 2021).

So what is behind this shift in ideologies?

The upcoming elections are being seen as a battle for survival for the JD(S), which was once dominating the political scene in the Vokkaliga constituencies of the state. The party had won 25 such constituencies out of 48 in 2018 but slumped to 11 in the 2023 assembly elections. The Vokkaliga vote then shifted to Congress.

The JD(S) party usually fields a majority of its candidates from the Vokkaliga community and has been known for its focus on the rural poor and farmers’ issues. The saffron party too realises that it cannot win a majority on its own without the support of the Old Mysore region – which is dominated by Vokkaligas.

Hence, both parties found an ally in each other. The saffron party has agreed to let JD(S) contest in 3 seats: Hassan (which has been a traditional stronghold of the Gowda community), Kolar and Mandya – all regions in the Vokkaliga belt. But will the farmers community, who are currently in a precarious situation owing to a prolonged drought in Karnataka, side with JD(S) this time or the Congress, which has been riding high on the success of its ‘guarantees’?