Meghalaya is the state that gave the idea of splitting a five year-term between two political parties in alliance with the toss of a coin and also the only one that once chose a chief minister by the draw of lots.

In 1978 when Darwin D Pugh 51, was about to complete his second month as the second Chief Minister of Meghalaya, eight years after it attained statehood by carving out of Assam, he was facing two challenges:?the rising dissidence among the four-party coalition government and the growing tribal sub-nationalism in the state.?

The four regional political parties,??All Party Hill Leaders' Conference, Hill State People's Democratic Party, Public Demands Implementation Committee and? Jaintia Nationalist Union, came together in a motive to dislodge the first Congress government and assert tribal integrity in the state. However, dissidence trickled in soon after the formation of a post-poll alliance.?Indecisive about who would be the chief minister even after a four-day-long negotiation,?the assembly decided to break the stalemate with a draw of lots. The lottery resulted in Pugh’s favour and he became the second Chief Minister of the hill state.?

In an interesting turn of events, in 1998, the United Democratic Party (UDP), the regional party of the Khasi Hills entered into an alliance with its rival Congress with the condition that the first half of the term, that is till November 2000, the government would be led by the UDP and the second half would be led by the Congress. The UDP which was a partner of the incumbent Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government led by the National People’s Party (NPP)? is fielding 46 candidates in the Feb 27 Assembly polls and is claiming to become the principal factor in the government formation.?

Meghalaya has seen several coalition governments since its inception and political shakiness is prominent in all of these. During the sixth legislative assembly from 1998? to 2003, the state elected four governments with four Chief Ministers,?SC Marak from Congress (I), B.B Lyngdoh from United Democratic Front, Evansius Kek Mawlong from? United Democratic Party and the last one being Flinder Anderson by all regional parties.?

So far, only three governments in Meghalaya have been able to complete their five-year term including the NPP-led incumbent Meghalaya Democratic Alliance and the Mukul Sangma-led Congress government in 2013.?

So what makes the governments of Meghalaya a hallmark of instability?

According to Prof. H. Srikanth, of the Department of Political Science at North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong, Meghalaya brought together three linguistically and culturally distinct tribes located in different hills under one state.?Recognizing the differences, the Autonomous District Councils were allowed to continue even after the formation of the new state. Fifty years of statehood could not lead to integration.? Despite the efforts to strengthen national parties, or form pan-Meghalaya political parties, the people to this day think along ethnic and regional lines. The lack of ideological and class-based parties and the continuation of personality-based politics lead to shaky governments.

“Having admitted the influence of ethnic and sub-regional considerations, we cannot but take note of some political changes that have taken place in the state in recent years.? Earlier, the influence of Khasi stalwarts like DD Lapang did not move beyond Khasi Jaintia Hills. Similarly, P.A. Sangma, despite his image as a national leader, had little influence in Khasi-Jaintia Hills. However, it goes to the credit of both Mukul Sangma and Conrad Sangma that the political outfits led by them could muster support both in Khasi-Jaintia Hills and Garo Hills” he adds.?

Most of the time, it is the coalition governments of the regional parties that have been highly unstable. The first unstable coalition government was the Meghalaya United Legislative Party of 1978 by All Party Hills Leaders Conclave, Hill State People Democratic Party and? Public Demand Implementation Convention --- all regional parties. The next unstable coalition was known as the 'Two-Flag Coalition Government' between the All People Hill Leaders Conference and the Public Demand Implementation Convention of 1979.?The list goes on.?

Talking to Outlook, Metbah Lyngdoh, the leader of the United Democratic Party, the principal regional party of the state said, “There are lots of factors behind such instability. One such is a multi-party system where no party can get a majority of the votes. Sometimes these regional parties tie up with the bigger parties but then regional aspirations fail to be met. So they are bound to come out of the alliance paving way for fresh mandates.”?

Dr?Antarwell Warjri in his paper “Failures of Regional Political Parties in Meghalaya” writes, “The presence of the multi-party system, weakness in leadership, the selfishness of the leaders, negligence of the high party leaders to allot tickets to good leaders were the main causes of the instability of Government in Meghalaya. The growth of a large number of regional political parties in the state seems to bring electorate`s confusion in election and leadership challenges. “ writes?

While coalition governments are a norm in the state, this time the nature of the coalition might be slightly different where there might not be a big brother in the Assembly unlike the NPP in MDA which had 23 legislators in the 60-member Assembly and Congress which had 33 legislators in the Meghalaya United Alliance II? government.

The Trinamool Congress which became a principal opposition without having won a single seat in 2018 polls, by the influx of Congress legislators is going to divide the vote bank in Garo Hills - an NPP and Congress bastion having 24 assembly seats. The NPP is feared to lose many strongholds to TMC led by Mukul Sangma- the two times Congress Chief Minister.?

The United Democratic Party, a former ally of the MDA and principal regional party, having a huge presence in Khasi Hills is also going to pose a challenge to the National People’s Party, especially in Khasi Hill.? The BJP, another former ally of MDA is fighting alone this time and has claimed to grab at least 15 seats in the state from only two in 2017. Another regional party, the Voice of People Party (VPP) and the KAM-a political platform led by social activists and think tanks is also going to divide votes, especially in East Khasi Hills.?

In such a poll scenario, where regional sentiments and issues are divided, Meghalaya is perhaps looking at another government that might be riddled with fragility and dissidence.

According to Biswwajit Mohapatra, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science at North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong, coalition governments fail due to the lack of consensus on what should be the acceptable way of carrying on governance and continuous politicking among the coalition partners on their respective party lines. Lack of political maturity and non-acceptance of the leader from the other party as the CM are the usual reasons for the failure of coalition governments.

“The failure of Meghalaya's shaky governments is due to lack of sound delivery on their promises which they made from time to time during various elections and the absence of a very well visualized and sharply envisioned roadmap for the development of Meghalaya state. The regional parties need to change their limited agenda bordering on regionalism and espouse\embrace? broader political agenda of rapid development in the state and conducive atmosphere which cuts across all divisions that can come to one's mind," he says.