Gujarat Elections: Will Low Voter Turnout Impact Gujarat Results?

There are concerns among political parties that the lower voter turnout in Gujarat assembly elections might hurt their prospects.

Naseer Ganai

Updated on: 7 December 2022 11:17 am

PM Modi to cast vote in Gujarat amidst much fanfare

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) Gujarat unit on Tuesday called a meeting to review low voter turnout in the recently-concluded Gujarat assembly elections.?

The exit polls have predicted that the BJP would comfortably win the Gujarat assembly elections. Though the results are just a day away — counting of votes for Gujarat and Himachal assembly elections will take place on Thursday, there are concerns among the parties over the low voter turnout.

Gujarat assembly elections, conducted in two phases on December 1 and 5, witnessed a voter turnout of 64.30 per cent that could affect performance of the parties. It was 4 per cent less than the last Gujarat assembly elections voter turnout as a total of 68 per cent voting was recorded in both phases in Gujarat in 2017.?

Narmada district recorded the highest turnout in Gujarat with 78.42 per cent voting, according to the statistics released by the State Election Commission (SEC), while the lowest turnout was recorded in Botad district with 57.59 per cent polling.?

Only two districts, Banaskantha and Sabarkantha, recorded voting above 70 per cent. Ahmedabad district recorded a turnout of 58.32 per cent. In Vadodara, it was 63.81 per cent.

Turnout in Ahmedabad:

2017:?66.6%
2012:?69.1%
2007:?58.2%
2002:?55.8%?

However, it is unlikely that low turnout will impact the outcome in the Gujarat assembly, according to political commentators. Political analyst and Deputy Editor with Ahmedabad Mirror, Dr Pradeep Malik, tells Outlook that those who don’t vote want status quo.

He says, “Those who didn't vote, probably, want status quo. If they wanted change they would have come out and voted.”

Malik adds there is no wave or undercurrent either in favour or against any party.

“Besides, as the exit poll figures suggest, the BJP has lost about 1 percentage point. However, the opposition votes have got vertically divided between Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress, thereby giving BJP a big advantage. As was expected, the BJP is likely to get good number of seats,” says Malik.

The traditional bipolar contest in Gujarat between the BJP and the Congress has turned triangular this time with the entry of AAP. The BJP has been in power for over two decades in Gujarat. Retaining Gujarat is an issue of prestige for the BJP as Gujarat is the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was as the Chief Minister of Gujarat that Modi secured the prime ministerial nomination of the BJP in 2014.