There are rumours that Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) wants an early Assembly election, most probably along with Maharashtra where assembly elections are due in October this year.

So far, it seems that there will be a bipolar fight between National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). 

NDA includes Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), JDU Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). Meanwhile, Grand Alliance has about six parties including Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Communist Party of India (ML)-Liberation, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (M) and Vikas-shil Insan Party.

On the other hand, Prashant Kishore (PK), former election strategist and founder of Jan Suraaj, is also planning to contest the 2025 state assembly election on all 243 seats but it is yet to be seen if he will become a factor and turn the poll triangular.

Recently he addressed a gathering in Patna where he announced about floating his political organisation Jan Suraaj Party on October 2 on the occasion of Gandhi Jayanti.

PK has been travelling in Bihar for one and a half years, but so far he has covered just 10 districts. He was supposed to start another round of padayatra (foot march) on June 20 but now he has postponed it. A source close to Jan Suraaj told Outlook, “He may resume the padayatra in July.”

In recent interviews with news channels, PK has claimed that he would win big in Bihar Assembly elections, but experts do not buy his claims.

What Lok Sabha result means for Grand Alliance

If the Lok Sabha results are analysed, NDA seems to be in advantage. The NDA has got a total of 45.51 per cent votes. BJP alone secured 20.52 per cent vote shares and JD(U) got 18.52 per cent votes. On the other hand, Grand Alliance altogether garnered just 36.50 per cent votes which is nine per cent less compared to NDA.

While NDA seems to be confident about winning in the 2025 Assembly elections, Grand Alliance partners feel that there is an urgent need for result analysis and course correction.

A few days ago, on the sideline of a press conference, Dipankar Bhattacharya, general secretary of CPI(ML)-Liberation, told Outlook that the Lok Sabha election result in Bihar was not satisfactory and that alliance partners should sit together and find out what went wrong.

"We were expecting at least 20 seats but we got only nine. So the result was not as expected. We had asked for a Siwan seat. If we had got that Siwan, it would have increased prospects in Saran, Maharajganj and Gopalganj Lok Sabha seats,” he told Outlook.

“If there was no fuss over Purnia then time and energy would have been saved. This would not have spoiled the situation and we would have also got benefits in neighbouring seats of Purnia,” Dipankar Bhattacharya says.

INDIA bloc this time started the poll process very late. There remained an impasse among alliance partners for seat distribution. When they finally came to an agreement on seat sharing, controversy erupted on ticket distribution. All of these took up much of the time.

“If we had started preparing a little earlier we would have had more time,” an RJD leader says.

RJD has this time fought on 23 seats but won on just four seats. Congress fought on nine seats and won four of them. CPI(ML)-Liberation had got only three seats and won two seats. A CPI(ML)-Liberation leader says, “Allocation of seats was not rational. It was very unfair. We need to sort these issues out before assembly elections.”

In Lok Sabha elections, RJD and its alliance partners, focussed on jobs which went well among voters. Tejashwi Yadav, RJD leader and former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav continuously told voters about lakhs of jobs given during his 17-month tenure as deputy chief minister when Mahagathbandhan shared power with JDU.

Many young voters hailed Tejashwi Yadav's efforts. RJD leaders are hoping that the issue of jobs will remain at the centre of the campaign in the assembly election and will benefit Mahagathbandhan.

Will JDU remain with BJP?

The way JDU has flip-flopped in recent years, BJP is sceptical if Nitish Kumar will remain with NDA for longer.

Despite poor performance due to political sabotage by Lok Janshakti Party (Now LJP-RV) in the 2020 Assembly elections, JDU has emerged as a kingmaker in Lok Sabha elections by winning 12 seats, as BJP fell short of the majority.

After the 2020 Assembly elections, the BJP was pressuring Nitish Kumar to vacate the chief minister post as they had almost double the number of MLAs as the JDU. Now with JDU becoming an important partner of NDA at the Centre, the party has again regained its upper hand in Bihar.

Soon after the result, the tone of BJP leaders changed. Now, no one from BJP is asking JD(U) to leave the chief minister chair as it is the junior partner in the state assembly.

JD(U) spokesperson Niraj Kumar says, “There must be no confusion. NDA will fight the upcoming Assembly polls under the leadership of Nitish Kumarji.”

He also denied the rumour of early Assembly polls. “Why do we want early polls? It will happen on time,” he added.

Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) still has 18 to 20 per cent secured votes, which can change the fortune of any alliance. So, the BJP wants JD(U) at any cost.

Political analyst Mahendra Suman says, “JD(U) feels more comfortable with BJP than RJD as many top JDU leaders are pro-BJP. JD(U)’s constituency is also ideologically close to BJP’s ideology.”

“Another thing is that any party changes alliance only if it has the possibility of electoral gain. Nitish Kumar is currently in a very strong position in NDA so I don't see any possibility that he will switch over the alliance,” he says.