What Trump's Return Means For Climate Action

Trump is a known climate change sceptic. No other US president in recent times has threatened global efforts to cut down carbon pollution the way he has. In 2020, during his previous term, Trump criticised "prophets of doom" at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He has also referred to global warming as “mythical”, a “hoax” and a “scam”.

Addressing a crowd of supporters on Wednesday after his win, Trump said that the US – which signed a global agreement during COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels – will instead amp up oil production, a decision widely lauded by the oil and gas industry. “We have more liquid gold than any country in the world,” he said, “...more than Saudi Arabia. We have more than Russia.”

What’s the future of Paris deal?

One of the many contentious moves made during Trump’s previous term was his decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, and with his return now, he is likely to pull out of it again.

The Paris Climate Agreement, drafted in 2015, was a watershed moment in the world’s fight against global warming. It aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by making efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C. In Paris, it was also decided that richer countries would contribute one billion dollars annually to help poorer developing nations achieve this target.

Under Joe Biden, the US rejoined the Paris deal and adopted several climate-friendly measures towards the same. However, it is almost inevitable now that Biden’s initiatives on climate will be scrapped.

More Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Sight?

The US is already the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world (after China) and if Trump’s statements are taken seriously, it is on its way to making sure that the global climate goals are further out of reach.

In 2022, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act – the biggest climate investment in the US – into law. Its role is to achieve 50 per cent emissions reduction by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. In his election campaign, Trump slammed the IRA for being too expensive and promised to revoke all unspent funds. 

Interestingly, more than three-quarters of the clean energy investments announced were in Republican districts. In fact, some Republicans had extended support to the Inflation Reduction Act, especially in those states that benefited from the jobs and investments such as in solar-panel factories, wind farms and other projects. Dismantling the IRA would require lawmakers from these states to vote to repeal it.

"The jobs and the economic benefits have been so heavy in red states, it's hard to see an administration come in that says, 'we don't like this,'" Carl Fleming, a partner at law firm McDermott Will & Emery, told Reuters.

"The IRA is crucial because the United States remains the single-largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest emitter annually. It is also the world's top producer and exporter of oil and gas, generating around 13 million barrels daily. The IRA served as a significant signal to the world that the US could lead on climate action," Sunita Narain, the director general of Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment, told PTI.

Could the US pull out of UN climate negotiations?

World leaders are meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, next week for COP29 and Donald Trump’s victory is being seen as a huge roadblock to progress in climate action.

There are speculations that Trump could possibly remove the country from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – an international treaty that allows America to take part in global climate negotiations. The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994 and as of today, 198 countries have ratified the Convention. Trump pulling out of it could make it harder for any future US president to rejoin the accord as it may require Senate approval.

Among countries facing the brunt of global warming is Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government had sought to make relations on climate and clean energy the "third pillar" of the Australia-US ties. If Trump exits the UN treaty, it would mean that Australia will have to look for new alliances with governments in Europe and Asia. 

Meanwhile, Europe will now have the opportunity and the responsibility to step up and lead. According to Laurence Tubiana, French economist and the CEO of the European Climate Foundation, by pushing forward with a fair and balanced transition, in close partnership with others, Europe can show that ambitious climate action protects people, strengthens economies and builds resilience.

At the summit next week, the countries are expected to agree on new climate finance that developed nations must provide to developing countries, starting in 2025, to help them combat and adapt to climate change. It will be interesting to see which way the US leans.