Climate Change: More Rain In Gujarat, Less In Himalayas

The analysis highlights a westward shift in the southwest monsoon, which traditionally brings more rain to eastern and northeastern states. This significant shift will lead to higher precipitation in the arid western regions, while parts of the northeast could see sharply reduced rainfall, further straining agricultural systems that depend on consistent and predictable monsoon patterns.

Gujarat and Rajasthan are projected to see rainfall increases of 40% under moderate-emission scenarios and up to 50% under high-emission scenarios compared to 1960 levels. While this could temporarily alleviate water scarcity, it also raises concerns about flooding, soil erosion, and declining agricultural productivity. Such challenges may disproportionately impact rural communities dependent on farming for their livelihoods.

Meanwhile, the Indian Himalayas, stretching from Kashmir to Arunachal Pradesh, are likely to see up to 15% less rainfall during the northeast monsoon. Areas like north Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh could face severe and acute water shortages, adversely affecting agriculture, drinking water availability, and natural ecosystems in these already vulnerable regions. This could lead to long-term consequences for local communities and biodiversity.

Conversely, during the northeast monsoon, states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh may see a rainfall surge of 20% to 60%. Ladakh, too, is projected to experience increased precipitation. While this could benefit some areas, the risks of rapid snowmelt, landslides, and local economic disruptions in high-altitude regions remain significant.

The study also warns of rising temperatures. By mid-century, India’s average annual maximum temperature could rise by 1.5°C, with even faster warming under high-emission scenarios. Himalayan districts such as Leh might see temperatures increase by 1.8°C, and Arunachal Pradesh could experience winter warming of up to 2.2°C, threatening crops that rely on cooler conditions.

Coastal regions and parts of the eastern Himalayas may face wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 31°C, endangering human health, increasing heat-related illnesses, and reducing labor productivity. These extreme conditions emphasize the urgent need for climate adaptation measures, including improved healthcare systems and stronger infrastructure. As global leaders discuss climate financing at the UN conference in Azerbaijan, this analysis underscores the need for India to address region-specific climate risks urgently. Strategies must include managing excess rainfall in western states, mitigating rainfall deficits in the Himalayas, and enhancing resilience to safeguard lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, and future generations against escalating climate impacts.

(This article is a reworked version of a PTI feed)