The assembly election results in Maharashtra shocked most people, including the winners. The stunning turnaround within five months from the 17-30 defeat for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha to 235-50 victory in the assembly, from a vote share deficit of one percentage point to a lead of 14 points is simply indigestible. What was particularly astounding was the BJP’s strike rate of 89 per cent, winning 132 of the 149 seats it contested. Though most exit polls had predicted a victory for the Mahayuti, none had predicted such a sweep. Incidentally, this is the third election within a year—Madhya Pradesh in 2023, Haryana in October and now Maharashtra—held under current Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar that has brought an increasing amount of incredibility to the election results.

The Maharashtra results are going to get the BJP on steroids to resume its bull run towards its goal—accomplishing a de jure Hindu Rashtra.

Counting Woes

A cross-section of people suspected massive election fraud not without justification. It was due to the huge discrepancy in polling figures declared by the Election Commission (EC). At 5 pm on November 20, when the polling officially closed, the ‘provisional polling figure’ given out was 58 per cent, which went up to 65 per cent at 11:30 pm, and three days later, on November 23, hours before counting started, it was put at over 66 per cent. The total increase in percentage point terms was 7.83 per cent—which meant that almost 76 lakh voters cast their votes in the state after polling officially ended.

Foremost, the duty of the EC is to release the polling figures in absolute numbers and not as a percentage and that too provisional. The cardinal principle of data science is that the data is to be collected at its source and in the format it is collected. The EVM registers votes and not the percentage of voting, and the violation of this cardinal principle by the EC by reporting data in percentage terms has been fraudulent and cannot have justification.

These figures created valid suspicion in the minds of the people because historically, the percentage of votes cast after polling hours has been below one per cent across elections in India, making this spike highly unusual. Such spikes have been an inexplicable recent phenomenon. Even if one ignored the argument of infeasibility of polling by such a large number of voters within a narrow window of a few hours after the polling closed, there is absolutely no justification for the polling figure varying after the poll was closed. Assuming the final polling concluded at 11:30 pm on the day of election, all the EVM and VVPAT units are expected to be sealed and the booth’s Form 17C signed and handed over to the polling agents of the candidates. There is no way polling figures can increase after that.

Even former Chief Election Commissioner S. Y. Quraishi too expressed his surprise on India Today TV channel and pointed out that polling figures were real-time data. How could they change the next day, he wondered. He further explained that at any given point of time, the presiding officers should be in a position to state immediately how many votes had been cast until then. All that remains is uploading the figures on the EC dashboard.

The manual of the Election Commission of India (EC) of India states that slips should be handed out to every voter waiting in the queue to vote, at the time of close of polling. The last person in the queue should receive a slip with the number ‘1’, while the voter at the top of the queue would receive the slip with the total number of voters still waiting to cast their vote. The manual also states that videography of the voters in the queue must be maintained to prevent subsequent manipulation or infiltration of voters. This anomaly calls for transparency from the EC in releasing video evidence to verify these figures, as their scale appears unprecedented and potentially implausible.

While the cloud of suspicion will stay, one should not ignore other factors that, to a large extent, led to this victory.

BJP’s Preparation, Congress’ Complicity

In my pre-poll column (November 2024), I had indicated a potential advantage for the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Nationalist Congress Party-Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP)’s Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance in the election on the basis of the negative perception of the BJP because of its unethical splitting of the NCP and the Shiv Sena, mis-governance during the Mahayuti government (declining economy, law and order, etc) and multi-dimensional crises it unleashed on the people. I also cautioned the MVA against complicity and arrogance, indicating the surprise defeat the Congress suffered in the recently-held Haryana election. However, while the Mahayuti woke up to face the challenge, the MVA continued with its ‘business as usual’ attitude.

Alarmed by the setback in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP-led alliance quickly got on with strategic recalibration and ground-level mobilisation. A series of steps towards organisational unity, grassroots outreach, policy-driven engagement and strategic leadership turned the tide in its favour. Foremost, it demonstrated effective coordination in seat-sharing and ironing out contentious issues.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) played a big role in launching a targeted outreach programme focusing on specific demographics, including the elderly and differently-abled individuals. It is said that the RSS conducted more than 60,000 statewide public meetings, establishing a direct link with voters. Its extensive ground network provided the Mahayuti a significant competitive advantage. This effective combination of large rallies being addressed by the BJP leaders and door-to-door outreach and micro meetings of the RSS proved extremely effective.

The BJP not only announced a plethora of welfare schemes, but also effectively communicated them to the voters. These included direct money transfer to women (Ladki Bahin Yojana); subsidised gas cylinders and education programmes, which resonated with the female voters; the revision of Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for crops such as paddy, jowar, bajra and soybean; and, the opening of additional procurement centres, particularly for soybean, to ensure farmers get remunerative prices and have easier access to markets.

The involvement of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath with his slogan “Batenge to Katenge” and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Ek Hain to Safe Hain” were directed against the Opposition’s effort to consolidate Muslim votes and unity among marginalised communities like the Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs) and the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), countering the caste census narratives of the Congress. The BJP’s usual digital campaigns on social media platforms to engage first-time voters, positioning the BJP as a party of growth and opportunity, were also effectively deployed.

As against this massive preparation of the Mahayuti, the Congress-led coalition displayed significant internal discord on every small matter. The Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP were in conflict regarding seat-sharing arrangements for days. The disunity among Opposition forces created confusion and mistrust among voters, resulting in a distinct advantage for the BJP.

Rahul Gandhi, instead of focusing on Maharashtra, camped in Wayanad to canvass for Priyanka Gandhi. Blind to the massive preparation of the Mahayuti, the local Congress leaders were staking claim over chief ministership. In its characteristic style, the MVA squandered whatever potential advantage the circumstances brought them and suffered a humiliating defeat.

The electoral success of the BJP-led Mahayuti has created a Maharashtra model of grabbing power, no holds barred. Maharashtra politics was mostly dominated by the Marathas, and its chief minister was always a non-Brahmin—except for Manohar Joshi (1995-1999), who actually represented the Shiv Sena—the party still anchored in the Maratha pride symbolised by Shivaji. Since the BJP’s attempt to make inroads into the state’s politics was difficult, it piggybacked on the Shiv Sena and catapulted itself to be the biggest party, dislodging the mighty Marathas, once thought formidable. Leveraging the state power, it inventoried the misdeeds of the NCP and with the threat of the ED-raids, buckled it to toe its line. Sharad Pawar, who is a master of political wheeling dealing and unscrupulous double games, let his nephew help the BJP form the government. With this election, it came full circle, effectively decimating the Marathas in politics.

The BJP played brazenly amoral games after the 2019 elections in forming the government with the help of Ajit Pawar and pushing Uddhav Thackeray into culturally alien waters. It was only a matter of time before the Shiv Sena would implode. It lured Ajit Pawar with his camp followers and formed the government led by Eknath Shinde, who took away a major chunk from Uddhav Thackeray. These were dare-devilish games in a major state like Maharashtra. Today, the BJP has emerged as a major party of the alliance, leaving both the alliance partners without much bargaining power. There is already news about Uddhav Thackeray being pressured by his cadres to break the alliance with the NCP and the Congress. One would not be surprised if Uddhav Thackeray joins the BJP to avenge Shinde. The present bad blood between Devendra Fadnavis and Thackeray may not last in power politics.

The episode echoes prior political developments, such as the 2019 Karnataka assembly crisis and Arunachal Pradesh’s defections in 2016. Yet, Maharashtra stands out for the synchronised disruption of two dominant regional parties. This highlights strategies for power grabbing over ideological coherence, often leveraging anti-defection law ambiguities and control over institutions. It underscores the erosion of trust in electoral mandates and the increasing normalisation of political opportunism.

Shaping National Politics

The Maharashtra Assembly election results will have repercussions way beyond the state. From Hindutva politics to reforms push and alliance arithmetic, the outcome will determine the course and discourse of national politics. One may not be surprised if the model is tried out at the centre to bolster the BJP’s tally.

Despite reduced numbers in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP-led NDA remained steadfast on its reform agenda, introducing initiatives like the expanded Ayushman Bharat and the Unified Pension Scheme. While there have been minor setbacks, such as rollbacks on indexation benefits and the Lateral Entry Scheme for jobs, the government’s resolve to push reforms, including the contentious Waqf Bill, is evident. All these moves, including the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), now rebranded as the Secular Civil Code, may now be pushed through.

The Congress’ dismal performance—winning just 16 out of the 101 seats in Maharashtra—has weakened its standing within the fragile INDIA bloc. For all practical purposes, the 2025 election cycle, starting with the Delhi assembly elections, appears lost to the Opposition.

Are we facing a spectre of an Opposition-mukt Bharat?

(Views expressed are personal)

Anand Teltumbde is an Indian Scholar, Writer and Human Rights activist

(This appeared in the print as 'Incipient Maharashtra Model')